Which way Uttar Pradesh goes will probably come down to one thing: Jobs, jobs and more jobs

Voting has begun in India’s crucial state-level elections, which will shape Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s choices for the rest of his second term. One of the five states voting is clearly more important than the others: Uttar Pradesh.

The population of UP, as it is known, is larger than that of Brazil. Many Indians regard the sprawling state as the country’s historic and spiritual heartland; an overwhelming majority of the country’s prime ministers, including Modi, have been elected from UP constituencies. Except for Maharashtra, the state sends more than twice as many representatives to India’s 543-member parliament. In Indian politics, how UP residents vote matters more than any other factor.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has ruled the state for the past five years. Indeed, Modi’s strong appeal in Uttar Pradesh is the primary reason he has won back-to-back parliamentary majorities, which no prime minister has done since the 1970s.

Even if Modi is not on the ballot, his popularity will be tested in the ongoing polls, which conclude on March 10. A defeat, or even an unexpected narrow victory, would tarnish the prime minister’s aura of invincibility, which has been his most potent political weapon up to this point.

Instead of implementing this sensible programme, UP politicians promise to end out-migration by expanding the public sector or building more airports. They are contending with hundreds of years of economic history. I wouldn’t put money on their chances of success.

Updated by Deveshi Gupta